Yueran Duan; Mateusz Nurek; Qing Guan; Radosław Michalski; Petter Holme

IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems

Temporality, a crucial characteristic in the formation of social relationships, was used to quantify the long-term time effects of networks for link prediction models, ignoring the heterogeneity of time effects on different time scales. In this work, we propose a novel approach to link prediction in temporal networks, extending existing methods with a cognitive mechanism that captures the dynamics of the interactions. Our approach computes the weight of the edges and their change over time, similar to memory traces in the human brain, by simulating the process of forgetting and strengthening connections depending on the intensity of interactions. We utilized five ground-truth datasets, which were used to predict social ties, missing events, and potential links.We found: 1) the cognitive mechanism enables more accurate capture of the heterogeneity of the temporal effect, leading to an average precision improvement of 9% compared to baselines with competitive area under curve (AUC); 2) the local structure and synchronous agent behavior contribute differently to different types of datasets; and 3) appropriately increasing the time intervals, which may reduce the negative impact from noise when dividing time windows to calculate the behavioral synchrony of agents, is effective for link prediction tasks.

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Zixuan Liu, Jonathan Lawry, Michael Crosscombe

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

Volume 664, 15 April 2025, 130424

In social learning, agents learn not only from direct evidence but also through interactions with their peers. We investigate the role of imprecision in such interactions and ask whether it can improve the effectiveness of the collective learning process. To that end we propose a model of social learning where beliefs are equivalent to formulas in a propositional language, and where agents learn from each other by combining their beliefs according to a fusion operator. The latter is parameterised so as to allow for different levels of imprecision, where a more imprecise fusion operator tends to generate a more imprecise fused belief when the two combined beliefs differ. In this context we describe both difference equation models and agent-based simulations of social learning under a variety of conditions and with different initial biases. The results presented suggest that for populations with a strong initial bias towards incorrect beliefs some level of imprecision in fusion can improve learning accuracy across a range of learning conditions. Furthermore, such benefits of imprecision are consistent with a stability analysis of the fixed points of the proposed difference equation models.

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Hao Wang

Human mobility, a pivotal aspect of urban dynamics, displays a profound and multifaceted relationship with urban sustainability. Despite considerable efforts analyzing mobility patterns over decades, the ranking dynamics of urban mobility has received limited attention. This study aims to contribute to the field by investigating changes in rank and size of hourly inflows to various locations across 60 Chinese cities throughout the day. We find that the rank-size distribution of hourly inflows over the course of the day is stable across cities. To uncover the microdynamics beneath the stable aggregate distribution amidst shifting location inflows, we analyzed consecutive-hour inflow size and ranking variations. Our findings reveal a dichotomy: locations with higher daily average inflow display a clear monotonic trend, with more pronounced increases or decreases in consecutive-hour inflow. In contrast, ranking variations exhibit a non-monotonic pattern, distinguished by the stability of not only the top and bottom rankings but also those in moderately-inflowed locations. Finally, we compare ranking dynamics across cities using a ranking metric, the rank turnover. The results advance our understanding of urban mobility dynamics, providing a basis for applications in urban planning and traffic engineering.

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Roland den Boef & René van Woudenberg

Foundations of Science Volume 30, pages 55–72, (2025)

The humanistic disciplines aim to offer explanations of a wide variety of phenomena. Philosophical theories of explanation have focused mostly on explanations in the natural sciences; a much discussed theory of explanation is the causal theory of explanation. Recently it has come to be recognized that the sciences sometimes offer respectable explanations that are non-causal. This paper broadens the discussion by discussing explanations that are offered in the fields of history, linguistics, literary theory, and archaeology that do not seem to fit the causal theory of explanation. We conducted an exploratory survey in acclaimed humanities textbooks to find explicitly so-called explanations and analyze their nature. The survey suggests that non-causal explanations are an integral part of the humanities and that they are of distinct kinds. This paper describes three kinds that are suggested by our survey: teleological, formal, and normative explanations. We suggest that such humanistic explanations strengthen the case for explanatory pluralism.

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ELENA CANDELLONE, ERIK-JAN VAN KESTEREN, SOFIA CHELMI, and JAVIER GARCIA-BERNARDO

Advances in Complex SystemsVol. 28, No. 03, 2540002 (2025)

Decision-making processes often involve voting. Human interactions with exogenous entities such as legislations or products can be effectively modeled as two-mode (bipartite) signed networks — where people can either vote positively, negatively, or abstain from voting on the entities. Detecting communities in such networks could help us understand underlying properties: for example ideological camps or consumer preferences. While community detection is an established practice separately for bipartite and signed networks, it remains largely unexplored in the case of bipartite signed networks. In this paper, we systematically evaluate the efficacy of community detection methods on projected bipartite signed networks using a synthetic benchmark and real-world datasets. Our findings reveal that when no communities are present in the data, these methods often recover spurious user communities. When communities are present, the algorithms exhibit promising performance, although their performance is highly susceptible to parameter choice. This indicates that researchers using community detection methods in the context of bipartite signed networks should not take the communities found at face value: it is essential to assess the robustness of parameter choices or perform domain-specific external validation.

Read the full article at: www.worldscientific.com