A simple criterion to design optimal nonpharmaceutical interventions for epidemic outbreaks

Marco Tulio Angulo, Fernando Castaños, Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez, Jaime A. Moreno

 

To mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, much emphasis exists on implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to keep the reproduction number below one. But using that objective ignores that some of these interventions, like bans of public events or lockdowns, must be transitory and as short as possible because of their significative economic and societal costs. Here we derive a simple and mathematically rigorous criterion for designing optimal transitory non-pharmaceutical interventions. We find that reducing the reproduction number below one is sufficient but not necessary. Instead, our criterion prescribes the required reduction in the reproduction number according to the maximum health services’ capacity. To explore the implications of our theoretical results, we study the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented in 16 cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we estimate the minimal reduction of the contact rate in each city that is necessary to control the epidemic optimally. We also compare the optimal start of the intervention with the start of the actual interventions applied in each city. Our results contribute to establishing a rigorous methodology to guide the design of non- pharmaceutical intervention policies.

Source: www.medrxiv.org

Call for the 2020 CSS Senior and Junior Scientific Awards

The Complex Systems Society announces the seventh edition of the CSS Scientific Awards. These awards are conferred once a year in two categories: the senior scientific award will recognize outstanding contributions of Complex Systems scholars at whatever stage of their careers, whereas the junior scientific award is aimed at recognizing excellent scientific record of young researchers (within 10 years of PhD completion).

See https://cxdig.wordpress.com/calls/64 and https://cxdig.wordpress.com/calls/65.

Deadline: June 15, 2020.

See https://cxdig.wordpress.com/community/css-awards for the list of previous awardees.

Source: cssociety.org

Complex Systems and Population Health – Yorghos Apostolopoulos; Michael K. Lemke; Kristen Hassmiller Lich – Oxford University Press

Edited by Yorghos Apostolopoulos, Michael K. Lemke, and Kristen Hassmiller Lich

 

  • The first comprehensive book integrating complex systems theory, methodology and modeling, with current population health practices
  • An instructional primer including learning objectives, take-home messages, and resources for further reading
  • Makes complex systems approachable for university professors, graduate students, policymakers, researchers, and practitioners of population health

Source: global.oup.com

Sustainability | Special Issue : Economic Complexity and Sustainability

During the last decade, economic development efforts have been marked by both a return of industrial policy [1–3] and the growing need to consider social and environmental sustainability [4–7]. At the intersection of both of these topics, we find important policy efforts, such as Europe’s Green Deal [8], and also a growing academic literature on economic complexity [9,10], green growth [11], green innovation [12,13], and sustainability. On the one hand, this literature is exploring how the product space [3] and the principle of relatedness [14] can facilitate an economy’s transition into green products [15–18]. On the other hand, this literature is exploring the connection between environmental sustainability and the complexity of an economy [19–22]. In fact, evidence thus far shows that economies tend to reduce emissions when they become sufficiently complex [21–23], and also, that higher complexity economies tend to experience lower levels of income inequality [7] and higher levels of human development [24].

The purpose of this Special Issue is to stimulate, promote, and gather research at the intersection between environmental sustainability, social sustainability, and economic complexity. We are looking for contributions exploring these and other topics:

 

  • Relatedness and the development of green products/jobs/industries;
  • Sustainability and global value chains;
  • Economic complexity, environmental sustainability, and the environmental Kuznets curve;
  • Economic complexity, inequality, and sustainable human development;
  • Green Growth;
  • Green Innovation.

Source: www.mdpi.com

What Is a Complex System?

A clear, concise introduction to the quickly growing field of complexity science that explains its conceptual and mathematical foundations

What is a complex system? Although “complexity science” is used to understand phenomena as diverse as the behavior of honeybees, the economic markets, the human brain, and the climate, there is no agreement about its foundations. In this introduction for students, academics, and general readers, philosopher of science James Ladyman and physicist Karoline Wiesner develop an account of complexity that brings the different concepts and mathematical measures applied to complex systems into a single framework. They introduce the different features of complex systems, discuss different conceptions of complexity, and develop their own account. They explain why complexity science is so important in today’s world.

Source: yalebooks.yale.edu