Leila Hedayatifar, Alfredo J. Morales, Dominic E. Saadi, Rachel A. Rigg, Olha Buchel, Amir Akhavan, Egemen Sert, Aabir Abubaker Kar, Mehrzad Sasanpour, Irving R. Epstein, Yaneer Bar-Yam

Predicting dynamic behaviors is one of the goals of science in general as well as essential to many specific applications of human knowledge to real world systems. Here we introduce an analytic approach using the sigmoid growth curve to model the dynamics of individual entities within complex systems. Despite the challenges posed by nonlinearity and unpredictability in system behaviors, we demonstrate the applicability of the sigmoid curve to capture the acceleration and deceleration of growth, predicting an entitys ultimate state well in advance of reaching it. We show that our analysis can be applied to diverse systems where entities exhibit nonlinear growth using case studies of (1) customer purchasing and (2) U.S. legislation adoption. This showcases the ability to forecast months to years ahead of time, providing valuable insights for business leaders and policymakers. Moreover, our characterization of individual component dynamics offers a framework to reveal the aggregate behavior of the entire system. We introduce a classification of entities based upon similar lifepaths. This study contributes to the understanding of complex system behaviors, offering a practical tool for prediction and system behavior insight that can inform strategic decision making in multiple domains.

Read the full article at: arxiv.org

Elisa Heinrich Mora, Kaleda K. Denton, Michael E. Palmer, and Marcus W. Feldman

PNAS 122 (3) e2417078122

Conformist and anticonformist biases in acquiring cultural variants have been documented in humans and several nonhuman species. We introduce a framework for quantifying these biases when cultural traits are ordered, with greater and lesser values, and either continuous (e.g., level of a behavior) or discrete (e.g., number of displays of a behavior). Unlike previous models, we do not measure a cultural variant’s popularity by its distance to the population mean, but rather by its distance to other variants. We find that conformity can produce a variety of population distributions that need not center around the initial population’s mean variant. Anticonformity may lead to highly polarized or uniformly distributed populations, depending on its strength and on individuals’ precision when copying others.

Read the full article at: www.pnas.org

Fengmei Ma, Heming Wang, Asaf Tzachor, César A. Hidalgo, Heinz Schandl, Yue Zhang, Jingling Zhang, Wei-Qiang Chen, Yanzhi Zhao, Yong-Guan Zhu & Bojie Fu
Nature Communications volume 16, Article number: 1107 (2025)

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a comprehensive framework for societal progress and planetary health. However, it remains unclear whether universal patterns exist in how nations pursue these goals and whether key development areas are being overlooked. Here, we apply the product space methodology, widely used in development economics, to construct an ‘SDG space of nations’. The SDG space models the relative performance and specialization patterns of 166 countries across 96 SDG indicators from 2000 to 2022. Our SDG space reveals a polarized global landscape, characterized by distinct groups of nations, each specializing in specific development indicators. Furthermore, we find that as countries improve their overall SDG scores, they tend to modify their sustainable development trajectories, pursuing different development objectives. Additionally, we identify orphaned SDG indicators — areas where certain country groups remain under-specialized. These patterns, and the SDG space more broadly, provide a high-resolution tool to understand and evaluate the progress and disparities of countries towards achieving the SDGs.

Read the full article at: www.nature.com