Canova, Antonio and Martinez, Edrey and Soares, Ana Cecilia and Scolaro, Mariana and Jaffe, Klaus

Is it possible to know how institutionally stable a country is, how corrupt its rulers are, what is the expectation and standard of living of its inhabitants, how dynamic and complex is its economy, all this, just by identifying and counting certain words in its constitution? We tried to empirically measure the effect of constitutions –if any– on the institutionality and socioeconomics of a country. This study of the history of 88 countries confirms a relationship between quantitative aspects of the constitution and the institutional and socioeconomic well-being of the country; and that new constitutions, over time, tend to be more extensive, with more articles and words. We now know, from a qualitative analysis, that the number of populist words in new constitutions is also greater. We knew that there is a moderate correlation between extensive constitutions, weak rule of law, and low socioeconomic variables. And now we find a strong correlation between countries with even lower rule of law and socioeconomic indexes and constitutions with a higher percentage of populist words. In this correlational study we use 84 international indicators. We did not find a direct cause-effect relationship between a new constitution and subsequent changes in the country’s socioeconomic variables, nor in institutional aspects. We do observe that the institutional and socioeconomic conditions of a country predict certain characteristics of a new constitution. There are objective differences between the constitutions of countries with the prosperity syndrome and the dysfunctional ones. For example, the evidence shows that countries with few populist words in their constitutions enjoy a prosperity syndrome, while countries with many populist words in their constitutions suffer from a dysfunctional syndrome. These results suggest that such syndromes reflect a synergistic relationship between various factors that define the success of countries. Many things are needed for a prosperous society and only a few for it to be dysfunctional. We have seen that constitutions are a factor in this entanglement of synergies and – yes – they must be taken into consideration. Deciphering the role of constitutions in this process needs further exploration and is beyond our current rational capacities. We introduce the Pop-Con Index, an objective indicator of constitutional populism in 88 countries.

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