KAROLINE WIESNER, JYOTSNA PURI, and ANDREAS REUMANN

Advances in Complex SystemsVol. 27, No. 06, 2440004 (2024)

As governments and multilateral institutions launch projects and programs to support climate change mitigation and adaptation, the challenge lies in determining their effectiveness. The high complexity of climate-change programs often makes it difficult to determine their effectiveness through standard monitoring and evaluation procedures. ‘complexity-aware monitoring’ is a qualitative approach to monitoring, recently introduced by international development programs. This increasing awareness of complexity in the evaluation sector opens up a window of opportunity for complexity science to support climate change mitigation and adaptation programs. This paper’s contribution is a hands-on methodology for live monitoring and evaluation of development programs. The methodology is rooted in existing literature on social–ecological systems, as pioneered by Ostrom, and in quantitative methods from complexity science. To illustrate the methodology, an existing climate mitigation project in Madagascar, funded, monitored and evaluated by the Green Climate Fund, is discussed.

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