Sergey Gavrilets, Johannes Karl, and Michele J. Gelfand

PNAS 123 (7) e2522998123

People often get public opinion wrong, assuming their own views are unpopular when in fact many others share them. This widespread misperception, called pluralistic ignorance, can trap societies in harmful or outdated norms. We build a mathematical model showing how these misperceptions form and change over time, depending on whether cultures are “tight” (with strict norms) or “loose” (with flexible ones). Our results explain why support for issues like climate action or women’s rights is often underestimated, and why change happens faster in some societies than others. The model also points to practical solutions: in loose cultures, sharing accurate information works best, while in tight ones, lowering the costs of speaking up can spark social change.

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