PhD opportunity at Sorbonne University: Transfer learning to inform the spread of other respiratory viruses : Application to Influenza using COVID19 and drug sales

In high-income countries, the COVID-19 pandemic fostered the generation of surveillance data at spatial and temporal resolution unseen before, providing comprehensive and accurate estimates of cases, detection capability, hospitalizations and deaths. At the same time, data describing behavioral response, mobility, mixing and compliance to public health measures have also become available with similar level of detail. Such an exhaustive picture of the unfurling of a pandemic was a first in human history, made possible because we live in the digital age. It does not imply that epidemiological surveillance will remain this way in the future. As COVID-19 becomes less virulent with vaccination and acquired immunity, political pressure is shifting away from comprehensive detection of cases, and individual willingness to get tested may also be declining. At the same time, corporate commitment to make proprietary data on human behavior available to scientific research (e.g., mobile phone data) is waning. This underpins the main scientific goal of this project: can we use the experience of “wartime” COVID-19 surveillance during years2020-2022 to improve epidemic understanding in the future “peacetime” period ? Typical data available for surveillance in peacetime is scarcer, for example syndromic surveillance for influenza and other respiratory viruses as reported in networks of general practitioners (GP), with limited virological confirmation. Other data sources, including participatory surveillance and drug sales, may complement such reports, but are less specific. Importantly, during the first 2 years of COVID-19, the aforementioned high-resolution data and the scarcer traditional data sources were observed together. We wish to exploit this overlap to build statistical and mathematical models that will extract more and better information from peacetime surveillance data. Specifically, we aim at generating estimates of incidence, severe cases, reproductive number that are better than those previously available in terms of spatial resolution, temporal resolution, predictive power (ability to make short-term forecasts and mid-term projections of epidemic activity). We will make use of AI/ML techniques to come up with models with which transfer of knowledge, for example from the dynamics of COVID-19 to that of Influenza, or from drug sales data to influenza, from mobility to infectious spread will make it possible to improve accurate estimation of influenza incidence and short term prediction. The impact of this project will be thus twofold. First, we will improve the knowledge and predictability of seasonal epidemic waves of airborne, directly transmitted pathogens. Second, we will provide with policymakers with new tools to inform public health response to seasonal acute respiratory illness.

More at: soundai.sorbonne-universite.fr

Collective Intelligence: Foundations + Radical Ideas June 19-22, 2023, Santa Fe, NM, USA

What is the nature of intelligence in social insect societies, adaptive matter, groups of cells like brains, sports teams, and AI, and how does it arise in these seemingly different kinds of collectives?

The Symposium & Short Course will search for unifying principles in collective intelligence by tackling its foundations, and explore radical ideas for harnessing collective potential. The event will begin with a broad discussion of first-principles approaches from the physical and natural sciences for deriving group performance from microscopic, individual-level behavior and interactions. Participants will debate the most promising measures of intelligence across systems and consider the dynamics of collective intelligence in changing environments. Finally, we will explore radical ideas for harnessing collective intelligence in human and hybrid systems and invite scholars, artists, writers, musicians, actors, directors, dancers, and inventors, in addition to scientists, to participate in this discussion.

APPLY by February 1st, 2023 for priority review.

More at: www.santafe.edu

Complex networks with complex weights

Lucas Böttcher, Mason A. Porter
In many scientific applications, it is common to use binary (i.e., unweighted) edges in the study of networks to examine collections of entities that are either adjacent or not adjacent. Researchers have generalized such binary networks to incorporate edge weights, which allow one to encode node–node interactions with heterogeneous intensities or frequencies (e.g., in transportation networks, supply chains, and social networks). Most such studies have considered real-valued weights, despite the fact that networks with complex weights arise in fields as diverse as quantum information, quantum chemistry, electrodynamics, rheology, and machine learning. Many of the standard approaches from network science that originated in the study of classical systems and are based on real-valued edge weights cannot be applied directly to networks with complex edge weights. In this paper, we examine how standard network-analysis methods fail to capture structural features of networks with complex weights. We then generalize several network measures to the complex domain and show that random-walk centralities provide a useful tool to examine node importances in networks with complex weights.

Read the full article at: arxiv.org

The unequal effects of the health-economy tradeoff during the COVID-19 pandemic

Marco Pangallo, Alberto Aleta, R. Maria del Rio Chanona, Anton Pichler, David Martín-Corral, Matteo Chinazzi, François Lafond, Marco Ajelli, Esteban Moro, Yamir Moreno, Alessandro Vespignani, J. Doyne Farmer
The potential tradeoff between health outcomes and economic impact has been a major challenge in the policy making process during the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemic-economic models designed to address this issue are either too aggregate to consider heterogeneous outcomes across socio-economic groups, or, when sufficiently fine-grained, not well grounded by empirical data. To fill this gap, we introduce a data-driven, granular, agent-based model that simulates epidemic and economic outcomes across industries, occupations, and income levels with geographic realism. The key mechanism coupling the epidemic and economic modules is the reduction in consumption demand due to fear of infection. We calibrate the model to the first wave of COVID-19 in the New York metropolitan area, showing that it reproduces key epidemic and economic statistics, and then examine counterfactual scenarios. We find that: (a) both high fear of infection and strict restrictions similarly harm the economy but reduce infections; (b) low-income workers bear the brunt of both the economic and epidemic harm; (c) closing non-customer-facing industries such as manufacturing and construction only marginally reduces the death toll while considerably increasing unemployment; and (d) delaying the start of protective measures does little to help the economy and worsens epidemic outcomes in all scenarios. We anticipate that our model will help designing effective and equitable non-pharmaceutical interventions that minimize disruptions in the face of a novel pandemic.

Read the full article at: arxiv.org

A combinatorial view of stochastic processes: White noise

 Alvaro Diaz-Ruelas

Chaos 32, 123136 (2022)

The incorporation of stochastic ingredients in models describing phenomena in all disciplines is now a standard in scientific practice. White noise is one of the most important of such stochastic ingredients. Although tools for identifying white and other types of noise exist,1,2 there is a permanent demand for reliable and robust statistical methods for analyzing data in order to distinguish noise and filter it from signals in experiments. Or in hypothesis tests, for assessing the plausibility of the outcome of an experiment being the result of randomness and not a significant, controllable effect. Due to its ubiquity in experiments and its mathematical simplicity, white noise is very often the most convenient stochastic component that adds realism to a dynamic model, commonly regarded as the noise polluting observations. It can be continuous or discrete both in time and in distribution, so it can be applied to many scenarios. It is a stationary and independent and identically distributed process, all relatively simple properties for a stochastic process. Here, we present a combinatorial perspective to study white noise inspired in the concept of ordinal patterns.

Read the full article at: aip.scitation.org