Atlas of Forecasts: Modeling and Mapping Desirable Futures

Forecasting the future with advanced data models and visualizations.

To envision and create the futures we want, society needs an appropriate understanding of the likely impact of alternative actions. Data models and visualizations offer a way to understand and intelligently manage complex, interlinked systems in science and technology, education, and policymaking. Atlas of Forecasts, from the creator of Atlas of Science and Atlas of Knowledge, shows how we can use data to predict, communicate, and ultimately attain desirable futures.

Using advanced data visualizations to introduce different types of computational models, Atlas of Forecasts demonstrates how models can inform effective decision-making in education, science, technology, and policymaking. The models and maps presented aim to help anyone understand key processes and outcomes of complex systems dynamics, including which human skills are needed in an artificial intelligence–empowered economy; what progress in science and technology is likely to be made; and how policymakers can future-proof regions or nations. This Atlas offers a driver’s seat-perspective for a test-drive of the future.

More at: mitpress.mit.edu

Self-organized multistability in the forest fire model

Diego Rybski, Van Butsic, and Jan W. Kantelhardt

Phys. Rev. E 104, L012201 – Published 29 July 2021

The forest fire model in statistical physics represents a paradigm for systems close to but not completely at criticality. For large tree growth probabilities p we identify periodic attractors, where the tree density ρ oscillates between discrete values. For lower p this self-organized multistability persists with incrementing numbers of states. Even at low p the system remains quasiperiodic with a frequency ≈p on the way to chaos. In addition, the power-spectrum shows 1/f^2 scaling (Brownian noise) at the low frequencies f, which turns into white noise for very long simulation times.

Read the full article at: link.aps.org

Global Disaster Coming? Earth’s ‘Vital Signs’ are Worsening Rapidly as Humanity’s Impact Deepens

The global economy’s business-as-usual approach to climate change has seen Earth’s “vital signs” deteriorate to record levels, an influential group of scientists said Wednesday, warning that several climate tipping points were now imminent. The researchers, part of a group of more than 14,000 scientists who have signed on to an initiative declaring a worldwide climate emergency, said that governments had consistently failed to address the root cause of climate change: “the overexploitation of the Earth”.

Read the full article at: phys.org

Modelling and measuring open-endedness

Susan Stepney

Generating open-ended (OE) systems is a major and as yet unachieved goal of ALife research. Here I discuss aspects of defining, modelling, and measuring OE. I apply a simple model of OE to itself, thereby expanding the concept, to demonstrate how truly open and vast open-endedness is.

Read the full article at: workshops.alife.org

Heterogeneity-stabilized homogeneous states in driven media

Z.G. Nicolaou, D.J. Case, E.B. van der Wee, M.M. Driscoll, and A.E. Motter ,
Nature Communications 12, 4486 (2021).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24459-0
Understanding the relationship between symmetry breaking, system properties, and instabilities has been a problem of longstanding scientific interest. Symmetry-breaking instabilities underlie the formation of important patterns in driven systems, but there are many instances in which such instabilities are undesirable. Using parametric resonance as a model process, here we show that a range of states that would be destabilized by symmetry-breaking instabilities can be preserved and stabilized by the introduction of suitable system asymmetry. Because symmetric states are spatially homogeneous and asymmetric systems are spatially heterogeneous, we refer to this effect as heterogeneity-stabilized homogeneity. We illustrate this effect theoretically using driven pendulum array models and demonstrate it experimentally using Faraday wave instabilities. Our results have potential implications for the mitigation of instabilities in engineered systems and the emergence of homogeneous states in natural systems with inherent heterogeneities.

Read the full article at: www.nature.com