Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social science

Jake M. Hofman, Duncan J. Watts, Susan Athey, Filiz Garip, Thomas L. Griffiths, Jon Kleinberg, Helen Margetts, Sendhil Mullainathan, Matthew J. Salganik, Simine Vazire, Alessandro Vespignani & Tal Yarkoni
Nature (2021)

Computational social science is more than just large repositories of digital data and the computational methods needed to construct and analyse them. It also represents a convergence of different fields with different ways of thinking about and doing science. The goal of this Perspective is to provide some clarity around how these approaches differ from one another and to propose how they might be productively integrated. Towards this end we make two contributions. The first is a schema for thinking about research activities along two dimensions—the extent to which work is explanatory, focusing on identifying and estimating causal effects, and the degree of consideration given to testing predictions of outcomes—and how these two priorities can complement, rather than compete with, one another. Our second contribution is to advocate that computational social scientists devote more attention to combining prediction and explanation, which we call integrative modelling, and to outline some practical suggestions for realizing this goal.

Read the full article at: www.nature.com

Self-organization in natural swarms of Photinus carolinus synchronous fireflies

Raphaël Sarfati, Julie C. Hayes, and Orit Peleg

Science Advances 07 Jul 2021:
Vol. 7, no. 28, eabg9259

Fireflies flashing in unison is a mesmerizing manifestation of animal collective behavior and an archetype of biological synchrony. To elucidate synchronization mechanisms and inform theoretical models, we recorded the collective display of thousands of Photinus carolinus fireflies in natural swarms, and provide the first spatiotemporal description of the onset of synchronization. At low firefly density, flashes appear uncorrelated. At high density, the swarm produces synchronous flashes within periodic bursts. Using three-dimensional reconstruction, we demonstrate that flash bursts nucleate and propagate across the swarm in a relay-like process. Our results suggest that fireflies interact locally through a dynamic network of visual connections defined by visual occlusion from terrain and vegetation. This model illuminates the importance of the environment in shaping self-organization and collective behavior.

Read the full article at: advances.sciencemag.org

Growing Urban Bicycle Networks

Michael Szell, Sayat Mimar, Tyler Perlman, Gourab Ghoshal, Roberta Sinatra
Cycling is a promising solution to unsustainable car-centric urban transport systems. However, prevailing bicycle network development follows a slow and piecewise process, without taking into account the structural complexity of transportation networks. Here we explore systematically the topological limitations of urban bicycle network development. For 62 cities we study different variations of growing a synthetic bicycle network between an arbitrary set of points routed on the urban street network. We find initially decreasing returns on investment until a critical threshold, posing fundamental consequences to sustainable urban planning: Cities must invest into bicycle networks with the right growth strategy, and persistently, to surpass a critical mass. We also find pronounced overlaps of synthetically grown networks in cities with well-developed existing bicycle networks, showing that our model reflects reality. Growing networks from scratch makes our approach a generally applicable starting point for sustainable urban bicycle network planning with minimal data requirements.

Read the full article at: arxiv.org

See also: http://growbike.net/ 

Cauliflower fractal forms arise from perturbations of floral gene networks

Eugenio Azpeitia, et al.

Science 09 Jul 2021:
Vol. 373, Issue 6551, pp. 192-197

Throughout development, plant meristems regularly produce organs in defined spiral, opposite, or whorl patterns. Cauliflowers present an unusual organ arrangement with a multitude of spirals nested over a wide range of scales. How such a fractal, self-similar organization emerges from developmental mechanisms has remained elusive. Combining experimental analyses in an Arabidopsis thaliana cauliflower-like mutant with modeling, we found that curd self-similarity arises because the meristems fail to form flowers but keep the “memory” of their transient passage in a floral state. Additional mutations affecting meristem growth can induce the production of conical structures reminiscent of the conspicuous fractal Romanesco shape. This study reveals how fractal-like forms may emerge from the combination of key, defined perturbations of floral developmental programs and growth dynamics.

Read the full article at: science.sciencemag.org

DESIGNING SYSTEMS BOTTOM UP: FACETS AND PROBLEMS

FRANK SCHWEITZER

Advances in Complex Systems Vol. 23, No. 07

Systems design utilizes top-down and bottom-up approaches to influence social or economic systems such that a desired outcome is obtained. We characterize different approaches like network controllability, network interventions, nudging and mechanism design and discuss the problems involved. We argue that systems design cannot be reduced to solving complex optimization problems.

Read the full article at: www.worldscientific.com