Author: cxdig

A simple contagion process describes spreading of traffic jams in urban networks

The spread of traffic jams in urban networks has long been viewed as a complex spatio-temporal phenomenon that often requires computationally intensive microscopic models for analysis purposes. In this study, we present a framework to describe the dynamics of congestion propagation and dissipation of traffic in cities using a simple contagion process, inspired by those used to model infectious disease spread in a population. We introduce two novel macroscopic characteristics of network traffic, namely congestion propagation rate \b{eta} and congestion dissipation rate {\mu}. We describe the dynamics of congestion propagation and dissipation using these new parameters, \b{eta}, and {\mu}, embedded within a system of ordinary differential equations, analogous to the well-known Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. The proposed contagion-based dynamics are verified through an empirical multi-city analysis, and can be used to monitor, predict and control the fraction of congested links in the network over time.

 

A simple contagion process describes spreading of traffic jams in urban networks
Meead Saberi, Mudabber Ashfaq, Homayoun Hamedmoghadam, Seyed Amir Hosseini, Ziyuan Gu, Sajjad Shafiei, Divya J. Nair, Vinayak Dixit, Lauren Gardner, S. Travis Waller, Marta C. González

Source: arxiv.org

Machine Learning and Modeling at CSS’2019

The science of complex systems provides the framework for understanding patterns of behavior, and their emergence, at multiple scales in social and other types of systems. The analytical toolsets provided by AI and Machine Learning are good to recognize and measure such patterns in the data. The combination of pattern recognition and generation mechanisms provides an opportunity to advance our understanding of the complexity of real systems. Ultimately, we could benefit from such complexity, rather than being endangered by it, design better technologies, decisions and strategies.

  • Show new ways to model complex and social systems by means of big data analysis, machine learning and AI.
  • Explore new ways to analyze the data, taking into account the complexity of underlying systems.
  • We would like to address how to formulate the right questions and retrieve the relevant information.

The opportunities available from big data and machine learning could solve challenging problems but we must analyze and interpret the data properly. Wrong assumptions and simplified views could separate modeling from reality. We expect to raise awareness about interventions in complex systems, the risk we face when societies become global, the opportunities that are created, and the role of complexity in data analytics.

Source: sites.google.com

Gender-specific preference in online dating

In this paper, to reveal the differences of gender-specific preference and the factors affecting potential mate choice in online dating, we analyze the users’ behavioral data of a large online dating site in China. We find that for women, network measures of popularity and activity of the men they contact are significantly positively associated with their messaging behaviors, while for men only the network measures of popularity of the women they contact are significantly positively associated with their messaging behaviors. Secondly, when women send messages to men, they pay attention to not only whether men’s attributes meet their own requirements for mate choice, but also whether their own attributes meet men’s requirements, while when men send messages to women, they only pay attention to whether women’s attributes meet their own requirements. Thirdly, compared with men, women attach great importance to the socio-economic status of potential partners and their own socio-economic status will affect their enthusiasm for interaction with potential mates. Further, we use the ensemble learning classification methods to rank the importance of factors predicting messaging behaviors, and find that the centrality indices of users are the most important factors. Finally, by correlation analysis we find that men and women show different strategic behaviors when sending messages. Compared with men, for women sending messages, there is a stronger positive correlation between the centrality indices of women and men, and more women tend to send messages to people more popular than themselves. These results have implications for understanding gender-specific preference in online dating further and designing better recommendation engines for potential dates. The research also suggests new avenues for data-driven research on stable matching and strategic behavior combined with game theory.

 

Gender-specific preference in online dating
Xixian Su and Haibo Hu
EPJ Data Science 2019 8:12

Source: epjdatascience.springeropen.com

Human information processing in complex networks

Humans communicate using systems of interconnected stimuli or concepts — from language and music to literature and science — yet it remains unclear how, if at all, the structure of these networks supports the communication of information. Although information theory provides tools to quantify the information produced by a system, traditional metrics do not account for the inefficient and biased ways that humans process this information. Here we develop an analytical framework to study the information generated by a system as perceived by a human observer. We demonstrate experimentally that this perceived information depends critically on a system’s network topology. Applying our framework to several real networks, we find that they communicate a large amount of information (having high entropy) and do so efficiently (maintaining low divergence from human expectations). Moreover, we show that such efficient communication arises in networks that are simultaneously heterogeneous, with high-degree hubs, and clustered, with tightly-connected modules — the two defining features of hierarchical organization. Together, these results suggest that many real networks are constrained by the pressures of information transmission, and that these pressures select for specific structural features.

 

Human information processing in complex networks

Christopher W. Lynn, Lia Papadopoulos, Ari E. Kahn, Danielle S. Bassett

Source: arxiv.org

Interacting contagions are indistinguishable from social reinforcement

From fake news to innovative technologies, many contagions spread via a process of social reinforcement, where multiple exposures are distinct from prolonged exposure to a single source. Contrarily, biological agents such as Ebola or measles are typically thought to spread as simple contagions. Here, we demonstrate that interacting simple contagions are indistinguishable from complex contagions. In the social context, our results highlight the challenge of identifying and quantifying mechanisms, such as social reinforcement, in a world where an innumerable amount of ideas, memes and behaviors interact. In the biological context, this parallel allows the use of complex contagions to effectively quantify the non-trivial interactions of infectious diseases.

 

Interacting contagions are indistinguishable from social reinforcement

Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, Samuel V. Scarpino, Jean-Gabriel Young

Source: arxiv.org