Author: cxdig

Five Principles for Organizing Collective Intelligence

Big Mind is notable for a number of reasons. One of them is that we don’t have a lot of guides for managing and optimizing collective intelligence, in contrast to the shelves and shelves of books describing how to optimize the output of individual brains. Another reason is the five fundamental principles that Mulgan offers, in the excerpt below, in a nuanced answer to the question: “What is it, at the micro and macro levels, that allows collective intelligence to flower?”

Source: sloanreview.mit.edu

Featured excerpt from Big Mind: How Collective Intelligence Can Change Our World.

Topography of epithelial–mesenchymal plasticity

Cells can change their phenotype from epithelial to mesenchymal during development and in cancer progression, where this transition is often associated with metastasis and poor disease prognosis. Here we show this process involves the transit through a multitude of metastable hybrid phenotypes in a way that is similar to the driven dynamics of disordered materials. Our method shows that highly aggressive hybrid epithelial/mesenchymal cell phenotypes are located in metastable regions that can easily switch under external and internal perturbations. We propose a general mapping strategy that can be used for other pathways, providing a useful tool to visualize the ever increasing number of gene expression data obtained from single cells and tissues.

 

Topography of epithelial–mesenchymal plasticity
Francesc Font-Clos, Stefano Zapperi, and Caterina A. M. La Porta
PNAS May 21, 2018. 201722609

Source: www.pnas.org

Network Effects, Origin Stories, and the Evolution of Tech

“The rules of the game are different in tech,” argues — and has long argued, despite his views not being accepted at first — W. Brian Arthur, technologist-turned-economist who first truly described the phenomenon of “positive feedbacks” in the economy or “increasing returns” (vs. diminishing returns) in the new world of business… a.k.a. network effects. A longtime observer of Silicon Valley and the tech industry, he’s seen how a few early entrepreneurs first got it, fewer investors embrace it, entire companies be built around it, and still yet others miss it… even today.

Source: a16z.com

Addressing the minimum fleet problem in on-demand urban mobility

Information and communication technologies have opened the way to new solutions for urban mobility that provide better ways to match individuals with on-demand vehicles. However, a fundamental unsolved problem is how best to size and operate a fleet of vehicles, given a certain demand for personal mobility. Previous studies1,2,3,4,5 either do not provide a scalable solution or require changes in human attitudes towards mobility. Here we provide a network-based solution to the following ‘minimum fleet problem’, given a collection of trips (specified by origin, destination and start time), of how to determine the minimum number of vehicles needed to serve all the trips without incurring any delay to the passengers. By introducing the notion of a ‘vehicle-sharing network’, we present an optimal computationally efficient solution to the problem, as well as a nearly optimal solution amenable to real-time implementation. We test both solutions on a dataset of 150 million taxi trips taken in the city of New York over one year6. The real-time implementation of the method with near-optimal service levels allows a 30 per cent reduction in fleet size compared to current taxi operation. Although constraints on driver availability and the existence of abnormal trip demands may lead to a relatively larger optimal value for the fleet size than that predicted here, the fleet size remains robust for a wide range of variations in historical trip demand. These predicted reductions in fleet size follow directly from a reorganization of taxi dispatching that could be implemented with a simple urban app; they do not assume ride sharing7,8,9, nor require changes to regulations, business models, or human attitudes towards mobility to become effective. Our results could become even more relevant in the years ahead as fleets of networked, self-driving cars become commonplace10,11,12,13,14.

 

Addressing the minimum fleet problem in on-demand urban mobility
M. M. Vazifeh, P. Santi, G. Resta, S. H. Strogatz & C. Ratti
Nature volume 557, pages 534–538 (2018)
doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0095-1

Source: www.nature.com

Predicting the temporal activity patterns of new venues

Estimating revenue and business demand of a newly opened venue is paramount as these early stages often involve critical decisions such as first rounds of staffing and resource allocation. Traditionally, this estimation has been performed through coarse-grained measures such as observing numbers in local venues or venues at similar places (e.g., coffee shops around another station in the same city). The advent of crowdsourced data from devices and services carried by individuals on a daily basis has opened up the possibility of performing better predictions of temporal visitation patterns for locations and venues. In this paper, using mobility data from Foursquare, a location-centric platform, we treat venue categories as proxies for urban activities and analyze how they become popular over time. The main contribution of this work is a prediction framework able to use characteristic temporal signatures of places together with k-nearest neighbor metrics capturing similarities among urban regions, to forecast weekly popularity dynamics of a new venue establishment in a city neighborhood. We further show how we are able to forecast the popularity of the new venue after one month following its opening by using locality and temporal similarity as features. For the evaluation of our approach we focus on London. We show that temporally similar areas of the city can be successfully used as inputs of predictions of the visit patterns of new venues, with an improvement of 41% compared to a random selection of wards as a training set for the prediction task. We apply these concepts of temporally similar areas and locality to the real-time predictions related to new venues and show that these features can effectively be used to predict the future trends of a venue. Our findings have the potential to impact the design of location-based technologies and decisions made by new business owners.

 

Predicting the temporal activity patterns of new venues
Krittika D’Silva, Anastasios Noulas, Mirco Musolesi, Cecilia Mascolo and Max Sklar
EPJ Data Science20187:13
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-018-0142-z

Source: epjdatascience.springeropen.com