At a macroscopic level, part of the ant colony life cycle is simple: a colony collects resources; these resources are converted into more ants, and these ants in turn collect more resources. Because more ants collect more resources, this is a multiplicative process, and the expected logarithm of the amount of resources determines how successful the colony will be in the long run. Over 60 years ago, Kelly showed, using information theoretic techniques, that the rate of growth of resources for such a situation is optimized by a strategy of betting in proportion to the probability of pay-off. Thus, in the case of ants, the fraction of the colony foraging at a given location should be proportional to the probability that resources will be found there, a result widely applied in the mathematics of gambling. This theoretical optimum leads to predictions as to which collective ant movement strategies might have evolved. Here, we show how colony-level optimal foraging behaviour can be achieved by mapping movement to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, specifically Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). This can be done by the ants following a (noisy) local measurement of the (logarithm of) resource probability gradient (possibly supplemented with momentum, i.e. a propensity to move in the same direction). This maps the problem of foraging (via the information theory of gambling, stochastic dynamics and techniques employed within Bayesian statistics to efficiently sample from probability distributions) to simple models of ant foraging behaviour. This identification has broad applicability, facilitates the application of information theory approaches to understand movement ecology and unifies insights from existing biomechanical, cognitive, random and optimality movement paradigms. At the cost of requiring ants to obtain (noisy) resource gradient information, we show that this model is both efficient and matches a number of characteristics of real ant exploration.

 

Optimal foraging and the information theory of gambling
Roland J. Baddeley , Nigel R. Franks and Edmund R. Hunt

JRS Interface

Source: royalsocietypublishing.org

Urban transportation networks, from sidewalks and bicycle paths to streets and rail lines, provide the backbone for movement and socioeconomic life in cities. These networks can be understood as layers of a larger multiplex transport network. Because most cities are car-centric, the most developed layer is typically the street layer, while other layers can be highly disconnected. To make urban transport sustainable, cities are increasingly investing to develop their bicycle networks. However, given the usually patchy nature of the bicycle network layer, it is yet unclear how to extend it comprehensively and effectively given a limited budget. Here we develop data-driven, algorithmic network growth strategies and apply them to cities around the world, showing that small but focused investments allow to significantly increase the connectedness and directness of urban bicycle networks. We motivate the development of our algorithms with a network component analysis and with multimodal urban fingerprints that reveal different classes of cities depending on the connectedness between different network layers. We introduce two greedy algorithms to add the most critical missing links in the bicycle layer: The first algorithm connects the two largest connected components, the second algorithm connects the largest with the closest component. We show that these algorithms outmatch both a random approach and a baseline minimum investment strategy that connects the closest components ignoring size. Our computational approach outlines novel pathways from car-centric towards sustainable cities by taking advantage of urban data available on a city-wide scale. It is a first step towards a quantitative consolidation of bicycle infrastructure development that can become valuable for urban planners and stakeholders.

 

Data-driven strategies for optimal bicycle network growth
Luis Natera, Federico Battiston, Gerardo Iñiguez, Michael Szell

Source: arxiv.org

Innovation, creativity, and competition are some of the fundamental underlying forces driving the advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI). This race for technological supremacy creates a complex ecology of choices that may lead to negative consequences, in particular, when ethical and safety procedures are underestimated or even ignored. Here we resort to a novel game theoretical framework to describe the ongoing AI bidding war, also allowing for the identification of procedures on how to influence this race to achieve desirable outcomes. By exploring the similarities between the ongoing competition in AI and evolutionary systems, we show that the timelines in which AI supremacy can be achieved play a crucial role for the evolution of safety prone behaviour and whether influencing procedures are required. When this supremacy can be achieved in a short term (near AI), the significant advantage gained from winning a race leads to the dominance of those who completely ignore the safety precautions to gain extra speed, rendering of the presence of reciprocal behavior irrelevant. On the other hand, when such a supremacy is a distant future, reciprocating on others’ safety behaviour provides in itself an efficient solution, even when monitoring of unsafe development is hard. Our results suggest under what conditions AI safety behaviour requires additional supporting procedures and provide a basic framework to model them.

 

Modelling the Safety and Surveillance of the AI Race
The Anh Han, Luis Moniz Pereira, Francisco C. Santos, Tom Lenaerts

Source: arxiv.org

The application of Bayesian techniques to the study and computational modelling of biological systems is one of the most remarkable advances in the natural and cognitive sciences over the last 50 years. More recently, it has been proposed that Bayesian frameworks are not only useful for building descriptive models of biological functions, but that living systems themselves can be seen as Bayesian (inference) machines. On this view, the statistical tools more traditionally used to account for data in biology, neuroscience and psychology, are now used to model the mechanisms underlying functions and properties of living systems as if the systems themselves were the ones“calculating”those probabilities following Bayesian inference schemes. The free energy principle (FEP) is a framework proposed in light of this paradigm shift, advocating the minimisation of variational free energy, a proxy for sensory surprisal, as a general computational principle for biological systems. More intuitively and under some simplifying assumptions,the minimisation of variational free energy reduces,for an agent,to the minimisation of prediction errors on sensory input. Initially proposed as a candidate unifying theory of brain functioning, the FEP was later extended to encompass hypotheses on the origins of life, and is nowadays discussed in the cognitive science community for its possible implications for theories of the mind. In particular,one of the most popular process theories derived from the FEP,active inference,describes a biologically plausible algorithmic implementation of this principle with several repercussions on our understanding of cognition. In this thesis, I will focus on the role of this process theory for action and perception. In active inference, the two of them are combined in a closed sensorimotor loopasco-dependent processes of minimisation of a single loss function,variational free energy, with respect to different sets of variables. Building on this, I will suggest that some of the core ideas of active inference are best seen in terms of enactive, embodied, extended and embedded (4E) theories, in contrast to the majority of the literature emphasising its apparent connections to more traditional, computational, accounts of the mind. In particular, I will develop this argument by focusing on some proposals central to 4E approaches: (a) the non-brain-centric nature of cognitive processes,(b)the lack of explicit representations of the world,(c)the coupling of agent-environment systems and (d) the necessity of real-time feedback signals from the environment. Under the FEP formulation, I will present a series of case studies with mainly two objectives in mind: 1) to conceptually analyse and reframe these 4E ideas in the context of active inference, arguing for the advantages of their formalisation in a more general probabilistic (Bayesian) framework and, 2) to present new mathematical models and agent-based implementations of some of the conceptual connections between Bayesian inference frameworks and 4E proposals, largely missing in the literature.

 

Baltieri, Manuel (2019) Active inference: building a new bridge between control theory and embodied cognitive science. Doctoral thesis (PhD), University of Sussex.

Source: sro.sussex.ac.uk

A growing understanding of consciousness could lead to fresh treatments for brain injuries and phobias.

Source: www.nature.com