Traffic density is an indicator of congestion and the present study explores the use of data-driven techniques for real time estimation and prediction of traffic density. Data-driven techniques require large database, which can be achieved only with the help of automated sensors. However, the available automated sensors developed for western traffic may not work for heterogeneous and lane-less traffic. Hence, the performance of available automated sensors was evaluated first to identify the best inputs to be used for the chosen application.
Category: Papers
The advantage of being slow: the quasi-neutral contact process
According to the competitive exclusion principle, in a finite ecosystem, extinction occurs naturally when two or more species compete for the same resources. An important question that arises is: when coexistence is not possible, which mechanisms confer an advantage to a given species against the other(s)? In general, it is expected that the species with the higher reproductive/death ratio will win the competition, but other mechanisms, such as asymmetry in interspecific competition or unequal diffusion rates, have been found to change this scenario dramatically. In this work, we examine competitive advantage in the context of quasi-neutral population models, including stochastic models with spatial structure as well as macroscopic (mean-field) descriptions. We employ a two-species contact process in which the “biological clock” of one species is a factor of α slower than that of the other species. Our results provide new insights into how stochasticity and competition interact to determine extinction in finite spatial systems. We find that a species with a slower biological clock has an advantage if resources are limited, winning the competition against a species with a faster clock, in relatively small systems. Periodic or stochastic environmental variations also favor the slower species, even in much larger systems.
The advantage of being slow: the quasi-neutral contact process
Marcelo Martins de Oliveira, Ronald Dickman
Source: arxiv.org
Optimal incentives for collective intelligence
Diversity of information and expertise among group members has been identified as a crucial ingredient of collective intelligence. However, many factors tend to reduce the diversity of groups, such as herding, groupthink, and conformity. We show why the individual incentives in financial and prediction markets and the scientific community reduce diversity of information and how these incentives can be changed to improve the accuracy of collective forecasting. Our results, therefore, suggest ways to improve the poor performance of collective forecasting seen in recent political events and how to change career rewards to make scientific research more successful.
Optimal incentives for collective intelligence
Richard P. Mann and Dirk Helbing
PNAS
10.1073/pnas.1618722114
Source: www.pnas.org
DeepStack: Expert-level artificial intelligence in heads-up no-limit poker
Artificial intelligence masters poker
Computers can beat humans at games as complex as chess or go. In these and similar games, both players have access to the same information, as displayed on the board. Although computers have the ultimate poker face, it has been tricky to teach them to be good at poker, where players cannot see their opponents’ cards. Moravčík et al. built a code dubbed DeepStack that managed to beat professional poker players at a two-player poker variant called heads-up no-limit Texas hold’em. Instead of devising its strategy beforehand, DeepStack recalculated it at each step, taking into account the current state of the game. The principles behind DeepStack may enable advances in solving real-world problems that involve information asymmetry.
Source: science.sciencemag.org
Graph Theoretic Properties of the Darkweb
We collect and analyze the darkweb (a.k.a. the “onionweb”) hyperlink graph. We find properties highly dissimilar to the well-studied world wide web hyperlink graph; for example, our analysis finds that >87% of darkweb sites never link to another site. We compare our results to prior work on world-wide-web and speculate about reasons for their differences. We conclude that in the term “darkweb”, the word “web” is a connectivity misnomer. Instead, it is more accurate to view the darkweb as a set of largely isolated dark silos.
Graph Theoretic Properties of the Darkweb
Virgil Griffith, Yang Xu, Carlo Ratti
Source: arxiv.org
